When discussing the situation in Iran, it is a worthwhile exercise to study the works of famous revolutionaries. The most talented of them all, Vladimir Lenin, the father of the communist revolution in Russia, proposed a concept of what he called "The Revolutionary Situation". According to Lenin, if and only if such a situation arises, it is possible to destroy the existing regime through the uprising.
According to Lenin, there are three objective signs of a revolutionary situation (my translation):
1. The inability of the political elite to continue its rule over the people - i.e. the elites cannot force, and the people would not agree to the status quo.
2. Dramatic increase of economic hardship for the working class.
3. Dramatic rise of people's political activity and their readiness to spontaneous revolutionary actions.
So far, it seems all three conditions are satisfied for Iran. The elites are split, the loss of oil revenues wrecked the economy, the masses cannot take it any more, and there is a massive increase in the number and intensity of demonstrations. So far, three for three. Not too bad.
What is left to find out is whether Lenin's "subjective conditions" are being satisfied. Quoting Lenin: "Are the revolutionary movement and its leadership strong enough to organize the massive uprising which will destroy the old government?"
It would appear that Mousavi is quite up to the task. Not only the dissident leader publicly said that he was ready to die for the revolution - he even smacked Obama for equating him with Ahmadinejad. It looks like Mousavi is ready to fight the mullahs and Obama at the same time. Attaboy!
I personally believe that Iranian dissidents may well win this time. God's speed, comrades! Lets finish off the Islamo-Fascist-Theocracy. Death to Tyrants!
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