Saturday, June 20, 2009

Can Iranians win?

I am not an Iranian, but I was born, raised and educated in the USSR, so I believe my experience could help in figuring out the nuts and bolts of the current events in Iran.

Can Iranians defeat the mullahs? I most surely believe so. Here are my reasons.

1. The Iranian political elite is split.
This is a very important issue, since it gives a lot of leverage and legitimacy to the pro-democracy movement. After all, they've gotten one of the top contenders on their side, a contender with some clout within the Iranian military appratus and police.

2. The regime is caught in an obvious hypocrisy
On one side, the mullahs claim that Iran is a democratic state, but the opposition says that the mullahs falsified the results of the elections. This by itself is a very strong argument which is difficult to refute. If the people don't trust the regime's propaganda, then the mullahs have little chance of persuading the people to calm down. When the people are ready to puke at the mere sound of a "great" ayatollah's voice - there is no chance his arguments will be even heard by the people, let alone trusted. I strongly believe that many Iranian people are ready to believe the worst about the regime, and dismiss any explanations out of hand - same as it was in the USSR by the 1991. Every Soviet citizen remember the common belief - if the government is denying that an something happened - you are damn sure it did happen.

3. There are no tanks on the streets
So far, the regime did not attempt to use the Iranian armed forces to put down the rebellion - which indictates that the mullahs are not certain about their loyalty. Moreover, there are reports (unconfirmed at this moment) that the mullahs are using arab thugs (Hezballah and Hamas) as well as Venesuelian police to harrass the rebellion. This may be a major PR advantage for the dissidents - they should use the Iranian nationalism card to defeat the regime. I am sure there are plenty of Iranian soldiers who would shoot down the Hezballah thugs without a moment's hesitation (if not an outright glee). Imagine the Russian tsars using Austrian thugs to put down the people's rebellion in Russia in 1917 - at the height of WW1. Even tsar's personal guard would tear them into pieces.

All in all, if people of Iran play it right, they may well get rid of the mullah's regime. And the longer this is going on, the better (for at least a few weeks), since people are getting more and more radicalized. A few days ago, most Iranians would be fine with the mullahs declaring Mousavi a winner. Today, they are storming the headquaters of the mullah's Gestapo. Tomorrow, they may try to hang the mullahs on the lamposts.


Joel_ said...

looks like the revolutionary guards are out...

Séamas Poncán said...

Here's my blog post translated (from Irish Gaelic):
Tá Dia Mór! Bás don Deachtóir!

Who would think that the majority of Americans would be standing with those over there shouting 'Allahu Akbar!' from their rooves? But they are heroes who are doing that over in Iran. It is a fateful hour in Iran, and I wish the revolution every success. Yeah, they're revolutionaries now!

Here are reports and opinions (in English) about what's going on over there [where I link to you].

Every day, it becomes clearer how terrible the government is, and that all it is is a military dicatorship, rather than a goverment of the people. The world understands this. The Iranian people now understand this. The Iranians here in America understand this, for sure. A disaster happened over there 30 years ago. Here comes the solution, God willing.

Whatever happens, the world has changed in that country. Hooray for the revolution!

And whatever the weak man who is presently our president says, the US is always on the side of freedom.

Séamas Poncán said...

Oh, the title means 'God is great, death do the dicator!'

Anonymous said...

It was nice to meet you at the Wash. Co. Fair on 8/1. Thanks for referring me to your blog. Your reference to WWI Russia was the way Stalin and the communist controlled Russia for many years. In the USA, Obama is touting a national security force equal in size and funding to our US military. This force could (and would) be used just the way Stalin did. For example, security force members from Alabama could be sent to police people in Maine and Maine force members could be sent to Oregon to control these citizens because people from foreign regions have NO affinity for the people they would be policing.
Regards, Jim E.