Sunday, December 6, 2009

Why I don't believe in the global warming ...

Global Warming is one of the most hotly debated issues in the political arena. And finally I decided that I could not be silent any longer and add my 5 cents to the debate. As an attentive reader of this blog could have guessed, I don't believe that Global Warming is a burning issue and I don't think that American people to sacrifice their living standards in order to stave off the impeding crisis of cosmic proportions.

First of all, it is necessary to dispel any doubts and announce that I personally want our planet to prosper, I do not wish the mankind to become extinct, and, moreover, that I am smart and educated to understand the basics of the debate between the skeptics and the alarmists. This preamble is necessary, since it is often maintained that people skeptical about the Global Warming are either stupid, ignorant or evil - and I am surely neither.

Secondly, I want to make it obvious - in order to justify the need for massive measured to reverse the global warming, the alarmists must indeed prove four assertions. The failure to prove either of these assertions should immediately put an end to any and all measures promoted by the alarmists.

1. There indeed exists measurable and consistent increase of global temperature;
2. The warming is caused in most part (more than 90%) by human activity;
3. The proposed methods to stop this increase by regulating CO2 emissions will be less costly than allowing the increasing trend to continue for some time (50 years or so) until new technologies will cheaply reduce CO2 emissions;
4. Harmful effects of global warming are larger than the sum of positive effects of global warming and the costs of drastically lowering the CO2 emissions.

Anyone following the debate on Global Warming can easily see that there is scarce evidence to support each and any of the above mentioned assertions - let alone all of them. The measurements of global temperature are quite unreliable, and it's clear that only small number of people (who's job security is strongly dependent on maintaining the Global Warming scare) have access to raw data - and their honesty and integrity are very questionable .

Moreover, there is little direct evidence that the temperature increase is indeed caused by human activity.

Lastly, the costs of lowering the CO2 emissions are staggering, while the actual danger of Global Warming to society is quite unclear.

It is also obvious that the current plans include drastic increase of government power, impoverishment of billions of people, creation of super-governmental elite, which will be given arbitrary power to control economies of whole nations. Last but not least, the proposed efforts to confront Global Warming will result in an unprecedented weakening of the Western World with unpredictable foreign policy ramifications. For example, it is beyond doubt that drastic cut in CO2 emissions will cause the de-industrialization of United States, Western Europe, Japan and Australia, while the communist China, Islamic World and India will be allowed to continue the CO2 emission. I am not sure anyone pondered the actions of China if it becomes the lonely manufacturing superpower - while its population demonstrates an explosive mixture of extreme nationalism and unbridled desire for world domination. It is also known that China's "one child policy" resulted in two very dangerous consequences:
1. There are far more men than women in China - which surely results in a lot of sexual frustration for young Chinese men;
2. The country cannot afford to support its older population due to relatively small number of young people;

It is indeed quite plausible that China will at some point engage in military expansion, with Taiwan and Russia, and possibly Middle East and Japan becoming their targets. The de-industrialized West will be unable to contain China, and it is very possible that India will be forced to act. All in all, the foreign policy implications of a drastic CO2 reduction are very dire, and it is quite a surprise to me that few people dare to discuss them.

On a more personal level, I cannot possibly reconcile the words of famous Global Warming activists and their dids. For example Al Gore, probably one of the most renown alarmists, shows a complete disconnect between his doomsday rhetoric (we all going to die if we don't cut CO2 emissions - and anyone doubting this is a criminal) - and his rather lavish life style. I find it hard to believe that a man seriously concerned about CO2 emissions, and who believes the West must drastically cut its consumption, would live like a Middle Eastern despot - with his huge house, private jets and expensive life style.

And surely Al Gore is hardly an exception - it is reported that the Global Warming alarmists recently rented 1200 limousines and 140 private jets in order for the Copenhagen meeting. Does this sound to you like these guys believe their own rhetoric? Would they travel in private jets and have their own chauffeurs drive them in limousines if they believed that would destroy the planet?

Moreover, it is interesting to note the bifurcation of opinions on Global Warming among American people. It is fair to say that there is a close correlation between the support for Global Warming scare and the attitude towards the role of the government in the country's economy. Clearly, the more likely the person to support liberal causes (higher taxes, more regulation, more handouts to the poor) - in other words, the more socialist one is - the more likely he is to believe in the Global Warming Scare. On the other side, it is also quite noticeable that very few libertarians or conservatives support the alarmists. In short, there is a close correlation between one's political views and the support for Global Warming - with income, education and sex being of no regard. From this analysis, it is clear that Global Warming can hardly be a purely scientific issue - given that the sides are so clearly divided by their political outlook.

I hope this short essay will be of some use to aspiring freedom loving activists. Please don't hesitate to comment on it.

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